In this paper we present various techniques to estimate Sri Lanka’s potential output and output gap, including statistical and model-based approaches. Compared to conventional statistical filters that rely exclusively on information in a single series, the model-based approaches allow...

In this paper we examine the channels through which innovations to policy variables- policy rates or monetary aggregates-affect such macroeconomic variables as output and inflation in Sri Lanka. The effectiveness of monetary policy instruments is judged through the prism of conventional policy...

This paper examines the short-run impact of Sri Lanka’s recent structural adjustment program on the poorest segments of society. While the ultimate goal of all macroeconomic adjustment programs is to overcome structural rigidities and put the economy on a sustainable growth path, some of the...

This paper reviews the experience with floating interbank exchange rate systems in five developing countries--The Gambia, Guyana, Jamaica, Nigeria and Sri Lanka--and draws some conclusions about the stability and efficiency of these systems. The experience of these countries illustrates both the...

This paper develops a model incorporating asymmetric government expenditure behavior in response to a windfall revenue gain occasioned by a transitory commodity boom. The model is used to illustrate the transitional dynamics of a stylized economy during the boom period and the nature of the...

This study documents a semi-structural model developed for Sri Lanka. This model, extended with a fiscal sector block, is expected to serve as a core forecasting model in the process of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka's move towards flexible inflation targeting. The model includes a...

We use a dynamic small open economy model to explore the macroeconomic impact of alternative public investment scaling-up scenarios, analyzing how improving the efficiency of capital spending and of tax revenue collection affect growth and debt sustainability for three fast-growing Southeast...