Inflation has been below the Federal Reserve's target for much of the past 20 years, creating worries that inflation … forecasters, household and business surveys, and the market for Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS) to estimate long …-run inflation expectations. These have fallen notably in the past few years (to roughly 1.9 percent for CPI inflation, well below …

Understanding the sources of inflation persistence is crucial for monetary policy. This paper provides an empirical … assessment of the influence of inflation expectations' anchoring on the persistence of inflation. We construct a novel index of … inflation expectations' anchoring using survey-based inflation forecasts for 45 economies starting in 1989. We then study the …

-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than anticipated, suggesting a … breakdown of the relation between inflation and activity. To examine the first, we look at 122 recessions over the past 50 years … unemployment on inflation, for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s, but has remained roughly stable since …

Inflation forecasts are modelled as monotonically diverging from an estimated long-run anchor point, or 'implicit … anchor', towards actual inflation as the forecast horizon shortens. Fitting the model with forecasts by analysts, businesses … and trade unions for South Africa, we find that inflation expectations have become increasingly strongly anchored. That is …

This paper incorporates market-based inflation expectations to the growing literature on trend inflation estimation …, and finds that there has been a significant decline in euro area trend inflation since 2013. This finding is robust to … using different measures of long-term inflation expectations in the estimation, both market-based and surveys. That evidence …

Do euro area inflation expectations remain well-anchored? This paper finds that the protracted period of low (and below …-target) inflation in the euro area since 2013 has weakened their anchoring. Testing their sensitivity to inflation and macroeconomic … news, this paper expands existing results in two key dimensions. First, by analyzing all available (advanced) inflation …

Money has only limited information value for future inflation in Ghana over a typical monetary policy implementation …) are shown to be important predictors of future price changes. Inflation inertia is high and inflation expectations are … largely based on backward-looking information, suggesting that inflation expectations are not well anchored and hence more is …

This paper examines the recent behavior of core inflation in the United States. We specify a simple Phillips curve … based on the assumptions that inflation expectations are fully anchored at the Federal Reserve’s target, and that labor …-market slack is captured by the level of shortterm unemployment. This equation explains inflation behavior since 2000, including …

Adequate modeling of the seasonal structure of consumer prices is essential for inflation forecasting. This paper … suggests a new econometric approach for jointly determining inflation forecasts and monetary policy stances, particularly where … money growth and implied exchange rate paths along with a jointly determined inflation forecast. The approach uses two broad …

-causes inflation in the euro area. Based on data from 1970 to 2006 and forecasting horizons of up to 12 quarters, there is surprisingly … power of money growth for inflation is substantially lower in more recent sample periods compared to the 1970s and 1980s …. This cautions against using money-based inflation models anchored in very long samples for policy advice …