We use Bayesian estimation techniques to investigate whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the United States … including money growth in simple VAR models of inflation does systematically improve out-of-sample forecasting accuracy. This …. However, the contribution of money to inflation forecasting accuracy is quantitatively limited and tends to be smaller in …

examine the output gap’s usefulness. The results suggest that although output gap uncertainty leads to more inflation and … policy based only on observable inflation and output growth …