-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than anticipated, suggesting a … breakdown of the relation between inflation and activity. To examine the first, we look at 122 recessions over the past 50 years … unemployment on inflation, for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s, but has remained roughly stable since …

This paper simulates out-of-sample inflation forecasting for Germany, the UK, and the US. In contrast to other studies … that Phillips curves based on ex post output gaps generally improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts compared to an AR(1 …) forecast but that real-time output gaps often do not help forecasting inflation. This raises the question how operationally …

This paper extends a small linear model of the Israeli economy to allow for nonlinearities in the inflation …

This paper examines the impact of the introduction of inflation targeting on the unemployment-inflation trade-off in … OECD countries. Theoretical models suggest that the credibility-enhancing effects of the adoption of inflation targeting … should cause an improvement in the unemployment-inflation trade-off, i.e., that reducing inflation by a given amount should …

This paper develops and estimates a game-theoretical model of inflation targeting where the central banker …

The main objective of this paper is to identify a set of leading indicators of inflation for the United Kingdom, and … discuss the conceptual issues pertaining to inflation targeting. The main conclusions are that narrow money has strong leading … indicator properties for inflation, while broad money does not. Long yields appear to have some information for the GDP deflator …

In recent years, an inflation targeting framework for monetary policy has been adopted in a number of industrial … the target, accountability and the role of inflation forecasts. The economic performance of the inflation targeting …

Under a flexible inflation targeting regime, should policymakers avoid any reaction to movements in the foreign … exchange market? Using data for six advanced open economies explicitly targeting inflation, the paper examines empirically … monetary policy responses in inflation-targeting, open economies have changed significantly, as the institutional framework for …

This paper reviews the first five years’ experience with inflation targeting in the United Kingdom. It concludes that … inflation performance was not significantly different under inflation targeting than predicted by a VAR model estimated in the … predicted, however, which is consistent with the interpretation that some gains in credibility were achieved under the inflation …