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This paper documents the determinants of real oil price in the global market based on SVAR model embedding transitory and permanent shocks on oil demand and supply as well as speculative disturbances. We find evidence of significant differences in the propagation mechanisms of transitory versus...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012251290
This paper examines the relationship between monetary policy and oil prices within a world oil demand and supply model … rates is a two-way relationship that depends on the type of oil shock. During a supply shock, rising oil prices caused … interest rates to increase; whereas during a demand shock, falling interest rates caused oil prices to rise. Record low …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400520
and their distinct effects. Kilian (2009) analyzes the effects of an oil supply shock, an aggregate demand shock, and a … precautionary oil demand shock. The paper''s aim is to model macroeconomic consequences of these shocks within a new Keynesian DSGE … framework. It models a small open economy and the rest of the world together to discover both accompanying effects of oil price …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402212
four quarters after the shock). We then re-examine the effects of low oil prices on the U.S. economy over different sub …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011715551
Global oil markets were roiled by sharp price swings in 2008, and economists are still divided over the reasons for the unusual volatility. Those emphasizing fundamentals point to inelastic supply and demand curves, others view the phenomenon mostly as a result of financial investors flocking...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014403156
minimum electricity consumption is around 14.6 degree C for the world and it is higher in urban and more industrial areas; and …Past studies on the relationship between electricity consumption and temperature have primarily focused on individual …, overcoming the data constraint by using grid-level night light and temperature data. Mostly generated by electricity and recorded …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012517931
Are policies designed to avert climate change (Climate Change Policies, or CCPs) politically costly? Using data on governmental popular support and the OECD's Environmental Stringency Index, we find that CCPs are not necessarily politically costly: policy design matters. First, only market-based...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012612336
Macroeconomic costs of conflict are generally very large, with GDP per capita about 28 percent lower ten years after conflict onset. This is overwhelmingly driven by private consumption, which falls by 25 percent ten years after conflict onset. Conflict is also associated with dramatic declines...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012252077
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009726428
While the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting all countries, output losses vary considerably across countries. We provide a first analysis of robust determinants of observed initial output losses using model-averaging techniques-Weighted Average Least Squares and Bayesian Model Averaging. The results...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012517923