Gómez Pineda, Javier Guillermo; Guillaume, Dominique M.; … - 2015
risk shocks have an important impact on world economic activity, with the busts in world output gap corresponding to … particular the price of oil, are shown to be demand driven. The model performs well at one- and four-quarter horizons compared to … the world output gap, country output gaps, the price of oil, and country risk premiums. The importance of systemic risk …