Although Caribbean countries have been largely successful in bringing annual inflation down to single digits in recent years-regardless of their exchange rate regime-their growth rates have been disappointing and their public debt has risen rapidly. By 2003, 14 of 15 Caribbean countries ranked...

This paper studies the nature of the shocks affecting the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU), and examines whether a hypothetical Eastern Caribbean fiscal insurance mechanism could insure member countries of the union against asymmetric national income shocks. The empirical results suggest...

The composition of Japan's current account balance has changed over time, with an increasing income balance primarily reflecting a growing net foreign asset position and higher corporate saving. A comparison of Japan's income balance with peer countries highlights: (i) relatively high yields on...

The assessment of external positions and exchange rates is a key mandate of the IMF. This paper presents the updated External Balance Assessment (EBA) framework-a key input in the conduct of multilaterally-consistent external sector assessments of 49 advanced and emerging market...

The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a key source of forecasts of global economic conditions. It is therefore important to review the performance of these forecasts against both actual outcomes and alternative forecasts. This paper conducts a series of statistical tests to evaluate the quality of...

Simulations with the Fund’s GIMF model show that raising government savings in New Zealand permanently by 1 percent of GDP is likely to improve the current account balance by about 1⁄2 percent of GDP. The way government savings are achieved matters for GDP but little for the current account....

This study measures the impact of changing economic conditions in OECD countries on tourist arrivals to countries/destinations in Latin America and the Caribbean. A model of utility maximization across labor, consumption of goods and services at home, and consumption of tourism services across...

Despite some improvement since 2011, Latin America and the Caribbean continue to lag behind other regions in terms of financial inclusion. There is no clear evidence that fintech developments have supported greater financial inclusion in LAC, contrary to what has been observed elsewhere in the...

Over the last decade China's investment in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) has increased substantially in volume and become more diversified from natural resources to other industries. Using cross-border mergers and acquisitions data, we demonstrate that since mid-2010s China's overseas...