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Korea's economy has leaped to high-income status thanks to several decades of sustained high growth. However, population aging and shifts in global demand provide headwinds for future growth and Korea now faces the effects of COVID-19 on economic activity. This paper asseses the expected drag on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012604751
Yes, partly. This paper studies the potential role of structural reforms in improving Japan's outlook using the IMF …-fully-believed path of structural reforms can significantly offset the adverse effect of Japan's demographic headwinds - a declining and … significantly to stabilizing public debt because of the resulting increase in inflation towards the Bank of Japan's target, while …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011978382
China is on the eve of a demographic shift that will have profound consequences on its economic and social landscape. Within a few years the working age population will reach a historical peak, and then begin a precipitous decline. This fact, along with anecdotes of rapidly rising migrant wages...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009706770
China is on the eve of a demographic shift that will have profound consequences on its economic and social landscape. Within a few years the working age population will reach a historical peak, and then begin a precipitous decline. This fact, along with anecdotes of rapidly rising migrant wages...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014395426
The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF) is a multi-region, forward-looking, DSGE model developed at the International Monetary Fund for policy analysis and international economic research. This paper documents the incorporation of demographic features into the model. The analysis...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012300678
Building on the evolving literature on the topic, this paper reviews the relationship between demographics and long-run capital flows in both theory and in the data. For this purpose, we develop a two region overlapping generations model where countries differ in their population growth and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011978549
This paper studies the effect of demographic change on national saving, global interest rates, and international capital flows, focusing on the role of the public pension system. We develop a small open economy overlapping generations model to illustrate the channels through which demographic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011978553
The paper assesses the government expenditure effects from changing demographics in the Asian “Tiger” economies through 2050. With some exceptions, their limited social insurance commitments initially suggest that aging populations may not adversely affect fiscal balances. Yet for all the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400543
Canadian public pension plans are run on a "pay-as-you-go" basis. As the baby boom ages, contribution rates for the two main plans are projected to rise significantly, from their current level of around 5 percent of eligible earnings to over 13 percent by 2030. An alternative is to set...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014398062
This paper draws out the parallels between Korea and Japan in terms of demographics, potential growth, balance sheets …, asset prices and inflation. Korea's demographic trends seem to track Japan's with a lag of about 20 years. Low productivity … reforms. While Korea's corporate balance sheets are stronger than Japan's in the early 1990s, Korea needs to progress with the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011716396