Union (WAEMU) from 1994 to 2009, this paper provides evidence of the two major channels for real effects of inflation …: inflation uncertainty and relative price variability. In line with theory and most evidence for advanced and emerging market … economies, higher inflation increases inflation uncertainty and relative price variability in all WAEMU countries. However, the …

Jordan, Turkey and Pakistan over the period 1986–93. The analysis is carried out in two steps. The parameters of agents … three markets is found to be deficient, the causes of market inefficiency are varied. For Jordan it appears that a large … negative shock to economic activity in the late 1980s caused agents to discount market fundamentals. For Turkey and Pakistan it …

credibility. In our setting, central bank credibility is proportional to the deviation of inflation expectations from the … announced inflation target, with positive deviations being more costly compared to negative ones. A loss in policy credibility … as a result of shocks leads to a more persistent, backward-looking inflation process, and is associated with lower output …

This paper contains an empirical analysis of currency substitution in Turkey: a simple relationship between the share … of foreign currency holdings in M2X on one side and movements in the exchange rate or inflation on the other is derived … depends mainly on long-term movements in the exchange rate, while the effect of inflation on currency substitution is not …

policy uncertainty (EPU) index for Turkey and assess how it affects Turkish firms. To disentangle the issues of endogeneity …

Inflation has been below the Federal Reserve's target for much of the past 20 years, creating worries that inflation … forecasters, household and business surveys, and the market for Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS) to estimate long …-run inflation expectations. These have fallen notably in the past few years (to roughly 1.9 percent for CPI inflation, well below …

Understanding the sources of inflation persistence is crucial for monetary policy. This paper provides an empirical … assessment of the influence of inflation expectations' anchoring on the persistence of inflation. We construct a novel index of … inflation expectations' anchoring using survey-based inflation forecasts for 45 economies starting in 1989. We then study the …

-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than anticipated, suggesting a … breakdown of the relation between inflation and activity. To examine the first, we look at 122 recessions over the past 50 years … unemployment on inflation, for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s, but has remained roughly stable since …

Inflation forecasts are modelled as monotonically diverging from an estimated long-run anchor point, or 'implicit … anchor', towards actual inflation as the forecast horizon shortens. Fitting the model with forecasts by analysts, businesses … and trade unions for South Africa, we find that inflation expectations have become increasingly strongly anchored. That is …