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This paper considers the problem of jointly decomposing a set of time series variables into cyclical and trend components, subject to sets of stochastic linear restrictions among these cyclical and trend components. We derive a closed form solution to an ordinary problem featuring homogeneous...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011978601
Countries that trade more with each other exhibit higher business cycle correlation. This paper examines the mechanisms underlying this relationship using a large cross-country industry-level panel dataset of manufacturing production and trade. We show that sector pairs that experience more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402276
We estimate a latent factor model that decomposes international stock returns into global, country-, and industry-specific shocks and allows for stock-specific exposures to these shocks. We find that across stocks there is substantial dispersion in these exposures, which is partly explained by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400963
This paper examines the extent to which conclusions of cross-country studies of private savings are robust to allowing for the possible heterogeneity of savings behavior across countries and the inclusion of dynamics. It shows that neglecting heterogeneity and dynamics can lead to misleading...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400163
This paper is an empirical study of the links between monetary variables and inflation based on Cagan’s equation and its rational expectations solution, when the forcing variable is a fractionally integrated process. As demonstrated by Hamilton and Whiteman, the existence of bubbles and other...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014398740
This paper estimates forecasting models using annual data for the income velocity of money in the G-7 countries. The predictions are conditional upon the realized value of the long-term domestic government bond rate. Such conditional forecasts did not deteriorate over the period 1980-1988 as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014395802
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011281166
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009419744
This paper investigates the synchronization of Hong Kong SAR’s economic growth with mainland China and the United States. This paper identifies trends of economic growth based on the permanent income hypothesis. Specifically, the paper confirms whether real consumption in Hong Kong SAR and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014412129
This study identifies the main shocks that cause fluctuations in French output and their channels of transmission. It uses a large-dimensional structural approximate dynamic factor model. There are three main findings. First, common shocks, especially demand shocks, which seem to originate from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400222