The paper evaluates the 24-month ahead inflation forecasting performance of various indicators of underlying inflation … and structural models. The inflation forecast errors resulting from model misspecification are larger than the errors …) overperform other measures over the monetary policy horizon and are leading indicators of headline inflation. Trimmed means …

inflation and growth, and long-term trends in price levels among the core ERM countries. The evidence suggests that over the …, than the individual national aggregates in predicting nominal aggregates such as inflation and the price level, while …

using the M3 money supply aggregated across “core ERM” countries- -those with low inflation and absence of realignments- -as … France and Germany separately. Second, the predictive power of the core-ERM aggregate relative to French and German inflation … is examined; it is shown that the aggregate helps to predict German inflation, over and above the predictive power of …

-causes inflation in the euro area. Based on data from 1970 to 2006 and forecasting horizons of up to 12 quarters, there is surprisingly … power of money growth for inflation is substantially lower in more recent sample periods compared to the 1970s and 1980s …. This cautions against using money-based inflation models anchored in very long samples for policy advice …

on monopoly markup fall short since inflation remained low after 2009. This paper contributes strong evidence of Granger …

Despite closing output gaps and tightening labor markets, inflation has remained low in the euro area. Based on an … augmented Phillips Curve framework, we find that this phenomenon-sometimes attributed to low global inflation-has been primarily … caused by a remarkable persistence of inflation, keeping it low despite the reduction in slack. This feature is shown to be …

Do euro area inflation expectations remain well-anchored? This paper finds that the protracted period of low (and below …-target) inflation in the euro area since 2013 has weakened their anchoring. Testing their sensitivity to inflation and macroeconomic … news, this paper expands existing results in two key dimensions. First, by analyzing all available (advanced) inflation …

This paper''s analysis of growth and inflation dispersions in the euro area reveals several findings. First, these …