the exchange rate was maintained, the banking system was supported by its parent banks, external imbalances and inflation …

-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than anticipated, suggesting a … breakdown of the relation between inflation and activity. To examine the first, we look at 122 recessions over the past 50 years … unemployment on inflation, for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s, but has remained roughly stable since …

This paper examines the recent behavior of core inflation in the United States. We specify a simple Phillips curve … based on the assumptions that inflation expectations are fully anchored at the Federal Reserve’s target, and that labor …-market slack is captured by the level of shortterm unemployment. This equation explains inflation behavior since 2000, including …

money in forecasting euro-area inflation. We compare the predictive performance within and among various classes of … contains relevant information for inflation in some model classes. Money-based New Keynesian DSGE models and VARs incorporating …

studies (Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro, Poland, and Romania). Our results of the panel data analysis indicate that supply …. In the case studies, we find a similar result for Lithuania and Montenegro, but the other three case studies point to the …

Upward sloping yield curves are hard to reconcile with the positive association between income and inflation (the … Phillips curve) in consumption-based asset pricing models. Using US and UK data, this paper shows inflation is negatively … the importance of monetary policy, predicting that a permanently low growth and low inflation environment would …

Over the past two decades, U.S. core PCE goods and services inflation have evolved differently. Against the backdrop of … global concerns of low inflation, we use this trend as motivation to develop a bottom-up model of U.S. inflation. We find … that domestic forces play a larger role relative to foreign factors in influencing core services inflation, while foreign …

This paper pursues a computationally intensive approach to generate future inflation, followed by an exploration of the … determinants of inflation expectations by estimating a new Keynesian type Phillips curve that takes into account country … indicate that high and climbing inflation could easily seep into people’s anticipation of future inflation and linger. There is …