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The paper investigates asymmetry in the allocation of aggregate demand shocks between real output growth and price inflation over the business cycle in a sample of fifteen Caribbean countries. In most countries, the evidence indicates the existence of structural constraints, implying that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014411208
This paper, using T-GARCH models, finds that the United States has been the major source of price and volatility … ""stock market correction"" period. There is also evidence of structural breaks in the stock price and volatility dynamics …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399563
This paper uses a global input-output framework to quantify US and EU demand spillovers and the elasticity of world trade to GDP during the global recession of 2008-2009. We find that 20-30 percent of the decline in the US and EU demand was borne by foreign countries, with NAFTA, Emerging...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402796
Commodity prices have declined sharply over the past three years, and output growth has slowed considerably among countries that are net exporters of commodities. A critical question for policy makers in these economies is whether commodity windfalls influence potential output. Our analysis...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011435808
than 40 percent of the volatility of aggregate sales. Although quite large, this contribution is smaller than documented in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012795043
We augment a linearized dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with a tractable endogenous risk mechanism, to support the joint analysis of monetary and macroprudential policy. This state dependent conditional heteroskedasticity mechanism specifies the conditional variances of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012300643
This paper investigates the sources of macrofinancial fluctuations and turbulence within the framework of an approximate linear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the world economy, augmented with structural shocks exhibiting potentially asymmetric generalized autoregressive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011932502
an economy that faces trade shocks, business cycle volatility reduces. For an economy with limited financial openness …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011705394
as conventional wisdom-that output volatility and growth are negatively correlated. We reexamine this relationship in the … negative association between growth and volatility has been preserved during the 1990s, both trade and financial integration … significantly weaken this negative relationship. Specifically, we find that, in a regression of growth on volatility and other …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400632
We study the impact of a minimum wage on business cycle volatility, depending upon its coverage and adjustment … affecting 20 percent of employees would amplify output volatility by 0.2 percent to 9.2 percent, and employment volatility by ?1 ….2 percent to 7.8 percent. A fixed wage or indexation to consumption price inflation increases volatility most. Indexation to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401464