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renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012251398
We measure the impact of frequent exogeneous shocks on small ECCU economies, including changes to global economic activity, tourism flows, oil prices, passport sales, FDI, and natural disasters. Using Canonical-Correlation Analysis (CCA) and dynamic panel regression analysis we find significant...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012796822
This paper examines the performance of World Economic Outlook (WEO) growth forecasts for 2004-17. Short-term real GDP growth forecasts over that period exhibit little bias, and their accuracy is broadly similar to those of Consensus Economics forecasts. By contrast, two- to five-year ahead WEO...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012796831
improve the precision of macroeconomic forecasting, especially in areas with data constraints. This paper investigates whether … travel-related online search queries enhance accuracy in the forecasting of tourist arrivals to The Bahamas from the U.S. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012170113
model with endogenously determined policy credibility and an effective lower bound is developed for forecasting and policy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012154577
, and volatility in the remittance-sending country …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012252729
volatility. The paper provides an overview of the recent developments in the conventional debt market. It builds an empirical two … that nonresident flows are behind the observed exchange rate volatility. The results suggest that the public debt market in … Malaysia responds adequately to both pull and push factors and find no firm evidence that nonresident flows cause volatility in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012001596
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