Two types of currency in circulation models are identified: (1) a first generation derived from the theory of money demand and (2) a second generation aimed at producing daily forecasts of currency in circulation. In this paper, we transform the currency demand function into a VAR to capture the...

We use a mean-adjusted Bayesian VAR model as an out-of-sample forecasting tool to test whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the euro area. Based on data from 1970 to 2006 and forecasting horizons of up to 12 quarters, there is surprisingly strong evidence that including money...

This paper provides comprehensive empirical evidence that supports the predictions of Sargent and Wallace''s (1981) ""unpleasant monetarist arithmetic"" that an increase in public debt is typically inflationary in countries with large public debt. Drawing on an extensive panel dataset, we find...

Given the rapidly declining demand for central bank reserves and their gradual replacement in wholesale payments by alternative forms of money—clearinghouse moneyand treasury money—this paper discusses whether the complete extinction of base money could undermine monetary control. It argues...