Monetary aggregates are now much less used as policy instruments as identifying the right measure has become difficult and interest rate transmission has worked well in an increasingly complex financial system. In this process, little attention was paid to the potential spillover of excess...

Two types of currency in circulation models are identified: (1) a first generation derived from the theory of money demand and (2) a second generation aimed at producing daily forecasts of currency in circulation. In this paper, we transform the currency demand function into a VAR to capture the...

Based on the observed behavior of monetary aggregates and exchange rates, we classify inflation-stabilization episodes into two categories: de facto exchange rate-based stabilizations (ERBS) and non-ERBS. Unlike the standard de jure ERBS studied in the literature, de facto ERBS encompass cases...

This paper provides comprehensive empirical evidence that supports the predictions of Sargent and Wallace''s (1981) ""unpleasant monetarist arithmetic"" that an increase in public debt is typically inflationary in countries with large public debt. Drawing on an extensive panel dataset, we find...

Given the rapidly declining demand for central bank reserves and their gradual replacement in wholesale payments by alternative forms of money—clearinghouse moneyand treasury money—this paper discusses whether the complete extinction of base money could undermine monetary control. It argues...

The development of empirical foundations to the conduct of monetary policy in Tunisia is the central concern of this paper. Finding stable money demand functions, it broadly corroborates the choice of monetary aggregates as intermediate targets of monetary policy by the Tunisian Central Bank. It...

This paper explores the behavior of money demand by explicitly accounting for the money supply endogeneity arising from endogenous monetary policy and financial innovations. Our theoretical analysis indicates that money supply factors matter in the money demand function when the money supply...

We use Bayesian estimation techniques to investigate whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the United States. We test for Granger-causality out-of-sample and find, perhaps surprisingly given recent theoretical arguments, that including money growth in simple VAR models of inflation...

We use a mean-adjusted Bayesian VAR model as an out-of-sample forecasting tool to test whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the euro area. Based on data from 1970 to 2006 and forecasting horizons of up to 12 quarters, there is surprisingly strong evidence that including money...