general equilibrium (CGE) trade model calibrated to 165 countries. The first scenario estimates effects from potential U ….S. auto tariffs. The second analyzes a 'transactional deal' between the U.S. and China to close their bilateral deficit. The … third, in the absence of such a deal, considers a potential escalation in bilateral tariffs between the two countries. Some …

This paper surveys the literature on the relationship between international trade and inclusive growth. It examines … claims that the rise in inequality in many countries can be attributed to the concurrent rise in trade competition …, especially from EMEs like China, spurring trade tensions and protectionist measures. The paper investigates the conflicting …

. Conflict is also associated with dramatic declines in official trade, with exports (imports) estimated to be 58 (34) percent …

We develop a new Measure of Aggregate Trade Restrictions (MATR) using data from the IMF's Annual Report on Exchange …-relevant measures of trade policy, and covers an unbalanced sample of up to 157 countries annually between 1949 and 2019. MATR is … strongly correlated with, but more comprehensive than, existing measures of openness and trade policy existing measures. We use …

of an agreement, which cuts tariffs by one percentage point, is 0.5% to 2% of consumption, much larger than in trade …We revisit the question of the quantitative benefits of WTO trade agreements in a setup that is non-standard from the … traditional trade policy point of view. We show that in a New Keynesian model, unilateral trade liberalization reduces welfare due …

This paper empirically investigates the impact of tariffs when production is organized in global value chains. Using … tariffs at different stages of the production chain for a broad set of countries and industries. Our results suggest that … tariffs have significant effects on economic outcomes, including on countries and sectors not directly targeted. We find that …

In this paper we demonstrate the importance of distinguishing capital goods tariffs from other tariffs. Using exposure … to a quasi-natural experiment induced by a trade reform in Colombia, we find that firms that have been more exposed to a … reduction in intermediate and consumption input or output tariffs do not significantly increase their investment rates. However …

We study the macroeconomic consequences of tariffs. We estimate impulse response functions from local projections using … in more unemployment, higher inequality, and real exchange rate appreciation, but only small effects on the trade balance …. The effects on output and productivity tend to be magnified when tariffs rise during expansions, for advanced economies …

bilateral distance, tariffs, and the quality of their exports. Under the assumption that trade costs are both ad valorem and per … unit, our model predicts that markups rise with distance and fall with tariffs, but these effects are heterogeneous and are …