We examine the effects of unconventional monetary policy (UMP) events in the United States on asset price risk using risk-neutral density functions estimated from options prices. Based on an event study including a key exchange rate, an equity index, and five commodities, we find that “tail...

This paper examines the association between the default risk of foreign bank subsidiaries in developing countries and their parents during the global financial crisis, with the purpose of determining the size and sign of this correlation and, more importantly, understanding what factors can help...

One approach to oil markets is to treat oil as an asset, besides its role as a commodity. Speculative and nonspeculative activity by investors in the derivatives markets could be responsible for a sizable increase in oil prices. This paper recognizes both the consumption and investment aspects...

This paper presents a market-based framework for pricing Fund liquidity assistance that accounts for the credit risk and the insurance benefit involved in such operations. It is based on the isomorphic correspondence between Fund liquidity and common stock put options. Although only...

Building on the widely-used double-lognormal approach by Bahra (1997), this paper presents a multi-lognormal approach with restrictions to extract risk-neutral probability density functions (RNPs) for various asset classes. The contributions are twofold: first, on the technical side, the paper...

This paper draws a link between international capital flows and the real options approach to investment by extending a model of real estate investment. It explains gradual investment, investment booms, and investment during recessions and emphasizes sunk costs, uncertainty, and the value of...

This paper derives risk indicators for the major Chilean banks based on contingent claims analysis, an extension of Black-Scholes-Merton option-pricing theory. These risk indicators are clearly tied to macroeconomic and financial developments in Chile and outside, but bank responses are highly...

This paper develops a comprehensive new framework to measure and analyze sovereign risk. Since traditional macroeconomic vulnerability indicators and accounting-based measures do not address risk in a comprehensive and forward-looking way, the contingent claims approach is used to construct a...

The recent global financial crisis has forced a re-examination of risk transmission in the financial sector and how it affects financial stability. Current macroprudential policy and surveillance (MPS) efforts are aimed establishing a regulatory framework that helps mitigate the risk from...