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that this may have contributed to more elastic aggregate supply in recent years, which is consistent with lower inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012302067
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011281619
unemployment on inflation, for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s, but has remained roughly stable since …-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than anticipated, suggesting a … breakdown of the relation between inflation and activity. To examine the first, we look at 122 recessions over the past 50 years …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012418077
Inflation dynamics, as well as its interaction with unemployment, have been puzzling since the Global Financial Crisis … forecast scenarios. We show that financial and external variables have the highest forecasting power for inflation and … unemployment, post-GFC …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011711582
relates average unemployment to average wage inflation; the curve is virtually vertical for high inflation rates but becomes …, at low inflation. Fourth, when inflation decreases, volatility of unemployment increases whereas the volatility of … inflation decreases: this implies a long-run trade-off also between the volatility of unemployment and that of wage inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402571
Low rates of inflation have been recorded in recent years, despite a decline in the unemployment rate. This phenomenon … explain the recent behavior of inflation. A leading explanation for recent inflation performance appears to be favorable price …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014403414
Estimates of potential output are an important ingredient of structured forecasting and policy analysis. Using information on consensus forecasts, this paper extends the multivariate filter developed by Benes and others (2010). Although the estimates in real time are more robust relative to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014412027
non accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) improves on univariate methods as the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014404073
A number of advanced economies carried out a sequence of extensive reforms of their labor and product markets in the … of reforms, those of New Zealand, Australia, Denmark, Ireland and Netherlands in the 1990s, and the labor market reforms …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011715188
The negative and stable relationship between an economy's aggregate demand conditions and overall unemployment is well …-documented. We show that there is a large degree of heterogeneity in the cyclical sensitivities of unemployment across worker and … economy groups. First, unemployment is more than twice as sensitive to aggregate demand in advanced as in emerging market and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012796190