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Okun's Law, development, and demographics : differences in the cyclical sensitivities of unemployment across economy and worker groups
An, Zidong; Bluedorn, John Christopher; Ciminelli, Gabriele - 2021
The negative and stable relationship between an economy's aggregate demand conditions and overall unemployment is well …-documented. We show that there is a large degree of heterogeneity in the cyclical sensitivities of unemployment across worker and … economy groups. First, unemployment is more than twice as sensitive to aggregate demand in advanced as in emerging market and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012796190
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Terms-of-trade shocks are not all alike
Di Pace, Federico; Juvenal, Luciana; Petrella, Ivan - 2020
When analyzing terms-of-trade shocks, it is implicitly assumed that the economy responds symmetrically to changes in export and import prices. Using a sample of developing countries our paper shows that this is not the case. We construct export and import price indices using commodity and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012486066
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What do we talk about when we talk about output gaps?
Barkema, Jelle; Gudmundsson, Tryggvi; Mrkaic, Mico - 2020
Estimates of output gaps continue to play a key role in assessments of the stance of business cycles. This paper uses three approaches to examine the historical record of output gap measurements and their use in surveillance within the IMF. Firstly, the historical record of global output gap...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012392643
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Hysteresis and business cycles
Cerra, Valerie; Fatás, Antonio; Saxena, Sweta Chaman - 2020
Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as 'hysteresis,' argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012251398
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The negative mean output gap
Aiyar, Shekhar; Voigts, Simon - 2019
We argue that in an economy with downward nominal wage rigidity, the output gap is negative on average. Because it is more difficult to cut wages than to increase them, firms reduce employment more during downturns than they increase employment during expansions. This is demonstrated in a simple...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012103632
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One ring to rule them all? : new evidence on world cycles
Monnet, Eric; Puy, Damien - 2019
We estimate world cycles using a new quarterly dataset of output, credit and asset prices assembled using IMF archives and covering a large set of advanced and emerging economies since 1950. World cycles, both real and financial, exist and are generally driven by US shocks. But their impact is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012103742
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How informative are real time output gap estimates in Europe?
Kangur, Alvar; Kirabaeva, Koralai; Natal, Jean-Marc; … - 2019
We study the properties of the IMF-WEO estimates of real-time output gaps for countries in the euro area as well as the determinants of their revisions over 1994-2017. The analysis shows that staff typically saw economies as operating below their potential. In real time, output gaps tend to have...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012103755
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Hysteresis in labor markets? : evidence from professional long-term forecasts
Bluedorn, John Christopher; Leigh, Daniel - 2019
changes in aggregate demand, when inflation is rising and unemployment falling unexpectedly, also come with persistent long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012022008
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Economic fluctuations in Sub-Saharan Africa
Melina, Giovanni; Portillo, Rafael - 2018
We compare business cycle fluctuations in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries vis-a-vis the rest of the world. Our main results are as follows: (i) African economies stand out by their macroeconomic volatility, which is is reflected in the volatility of output and other macro variables; (ii)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012112323
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Measuring output gap : is it worth your Time?
Chen, Jiaqian; Górnicka, Lucyna - 2020
We apply a range of models to the U.K. data to obtain estimates of the output gap. A structural VAR with an appropriate identification strategy provides improved estimates of output gap with better real time properties and lower sensitivity to temporary shocks than the usual filtering...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012170152