We argue that the U.S. personal saving rate's long stability (from the 1960s through the early 1980s), subsequent steady decline (1980s - 2007), and recent substantial increase (2008 - 2011) can all be interpreted using a parsimonious 'buffer stock' model of optimal consumption in the presence...

Historically high household debt in several economies is calling for a deleveraging, but according to some economists, this adjustment can slow GDP growth by weighing on consumption. Using a sample of advanced and emerging market economies, this paper finds evidence of a negative relationship...

The Chinese government has recently focused on the need to increase consumption to rebalance the economy. A widely held view is that despite China''s remarkably high growth, the share of consumption in total expenditure has been low and declining due to high and rising saving rate of Chinese...

Consumption in China is unusually low and has continued to decline as a share of GDP over the past decade. A key policy question is how to reverse this trend, and rebalance growth away from reliance on exports and investment and toward consumption. This paper investigates whether the sizable...

We argue that the U.S. personal saving rate’s long stability (from the 1960s through the early 1980s), subsequent steady decline (1980s - 2007), and recent substantial increase (2008 - 2011) can all be interpreted using a parsimonious ‘buffer stock’ model of optimal consumption in the...

This paper examines whether financial deregulation in the 1980s has reduced the importance of liquidity constraints in consumption patterns. Data for six industrialized countries are used to estimate a simple model incorporating liquidity constraints and forward looking behavior. It is concluded...

This paper uses the standard one-sector neoclassical growth model to investigate why China''s consumption has been low and investment high. It finds that the low cost of capital has been quantitatively an important factor. Theory predicts that the price of capital may have been significantly...