terms of trade, but that actual output comoves twice as strongly as potential output. The weak commodity price outlook is …

and some of its fundamental exogenous determinants, mainly terms of trade movements and commercial policy changes. Drawing … on existing studies of trade flows in developing countries, it is possible to derive plausible quantitative ranges for …

sector development acts as a shock-absorber in poor countries, dampening the transmission of terms of trade shocks to growth …-whether financial intermediation is performed through banks or markets-for macroeconomic volatility, against the backdrop of increased … frequent terms of trade shocks, the paper focuses on a sample of 38 LICs over the period 1978-2012 and finds that banking …

We identify key factors, from large set of potential determinants, that explain the variation in export diversification … diversification, followed by improving education outcomes at the secondary level and financial sector development … prioritize human capital accumulation and reduce barriers to trade. Other policy areas include improving quality of institutions …

trade flows. Econometric estimates of export and import equations provide evidence that trade flows have indeed become …Over the past 20 years, the Chinese authorities have undertaken wide-ranging reforms of their exchange and trade … increasingly price sensitive, owing to the gradual liberalization of the trade regime over time, and to the growing shares of …

on estimates of changes in food prices due to the Round obtained in previous studies, and on detailed data on food trade … than 4 percent of net food imports over a period of six years for the countries considered, although for some of the larger …

This paper investigates the impact of long-run terms-of-trade shocks. Analytically, we show that, if capital goods are … during 1965-89. Favorable terms-of-trade shocks increase investment and (especially government) consumption, but reduce …, but Dutch Disease effects are strikingly absent. Investment, consumption, and nontradable output respond more to a terms-of-trade …

industries. The empirical analysis finds that export diversification may promote economic growth and reduce economic volatility … its volatility in LICs and small states, using a range of indices of export concentration differing in the coverage of … in these countries. Furthermore, the analysis demonstrates that the economic benefits of export diversification differ by …

secular trend and the short run volatility. To do so, we employ 25 series, some of them starting as far back as 1650 and … investigating the dynamics of the volatility of the 25 relative primary commodity prices also allowing for endogenous multiple … breaks. We describe the often time-varying volatility in commodity prices and show that it has increased in recent years …