-2012, with a global repository of giant oil, gas, and mineral discoveries. We find strong and robust evidence of a 'fiscal … presource curse', id est, natural resources can jeopardize fiscal sustainability even before 'the first drop of oil is pumped …'. Specifically, we find that giant discoveries, mostly of oil and gas, lead to permanently higher government debt and, eventually …

input for production. The quantity control is implemented by auctioning licenses for the restricted input (e.g., a pollution … permit or a production license). The paper shows that liberalizing the quantity control could reduce investment in the …

: the recession is larger under such approach as the containment policy applies to a larger fraction of people, remains in …

1992 to 2014. The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware that recession years will be different from … other years, they miss the magnitude of the recession by a wide margin until the year is almost over. Forecasts during non-recession … years are revised slowly; in recession years, the pace of revision picks up but not sufficiently to avoid large forecast …