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We examine the existing fiscal policy paradigm in commodity-exporting countries. First, we argue that its centerpiece-the permanent income hypothesis (PIH)-is not consistent with either intergenerational equity or long-term sustainability in the presence of uncertainty. Policies to achieve these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012021900
This paper examines the impact of government size on how output and government expenditure respond to oil price shocks in 28 oil-exporting countries between 1990 and 2016. Results suggest that if the size of government (measured by government expenditure-to-(non-oil) GDP ratio) is larger,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011781275
After the decline in oil prices, many oil exporters face the need to improve their external balances. Special characteristics of oil exporters make the exchange rate an ineffective instrument for this purpose and give fiscal policy a sizeable role. These conclusions are supported by regression...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011711426
In November 2014, OPEC announced a new strategy geared towards improving its market share. Oil-market analysts … explains the fundamental market factors that can rationalize such a "regime switch" by OPEC. These include: (i) the growth of … US shale oil production; (ii) the slowdown of global oil demand; (iii) reduced cohesiveness of the OPEC cartel; (iv …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011711707
Are the current account fluctuations in oil-exporting countries ""excessive""? How should their real exchange rate respond to the evolution of external (and domestic) fundamentals? This paper proposes methodologies tailored to the specific features of oil-exporting countries that help address...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402494
Oil exporters have run large current account surpluses. We explore oil exporters'' role in our understanding and the resolution of global imbalances. Current account dynamics are estimated for oil-exporting countries and the rest of the world. We find that fiscal policy has a much stronger...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402505
This study derives structural implications of the Dutch disease in oil-exporting countries due to permanent oil price shocks from a typical model. We then test these implications in manufacturing sector data across a wide group of countries including oil-exporters covering 1977 to 2004. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402793
We examine the behavior of expenditure policy during boom-bust in commodity price cycles, and its implication for real exchange rate movements. To do so, we introduce a Dutch disease model with downward rigidities in government spending to revenue shock. This model leads to a decoupling between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402809