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The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a key source of forecasts of global economic conditions. It is therefore important to review the performance of these forecasts against both actual outcomes and alternative forecasts. This paper conducts a series of statistical tests to evaluate the quality of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401878
oil prices and fiscal consolidation will contribute to the recovery of private sector investment. Fiscal consolidation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014411209
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010388634
After the decline in oil prices, many oil exporters face the need to improve their external balances. Special characteristics of oil exporters make the exchange rate an ineffective instrument for this purpose and give fiscal policy a sizeable role. These conclusions are supported by regression...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011711426
This paper studies the effect of demographic change on national saving, global interest rates, and international capital flows, focusing on the role of the public pension system. We develop a small open economy overlapping generations model to illustrate the channels through which demographic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011978553
We build a factor-augmented interacted panel vector-autoregressive model of the Euro Area (EA) and estimate it with Bayesian methods to compute government spending multipliers. The multipliers are contingent on the overall monetary policy stance, captured by a shadow monetary policy rate. In the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012102056
-political instability once fiscal policy and remittances have been accounted for. It focuses on import prices to reflect the vulnerability … of importer countries / net-buyer households to food price shocks. The paper finds that import food price shocks strongly … and income per capita. On the other hand, while remittances seem to dampen the adverse effect of import food price shocks …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012392596
We study the role that changes in credit and fiscal positions play in explaining current account fluctuations. Empirically, the current account declines when credit increases, and when the fiscal balance declines. We use a two-country model with financial frictions and fiscal policy to study...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012518319
-2011, we empirically establish that exogenous shocks to export demand and import competition both generate large aggregate … firms in the presence of distortions: (i) Both export and import expansion increase average firm productivity, but the … former also shifts activity towards more productive firms, while the latter acts in reverse; (ii) Both export and import …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012301837
direct measures of product variety calculated from 6-digit OECD export and import data. Although the issue is still far from …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399925