Analyzing macroeconomic impacts of oil price changes requires first to investigate different sources of these changes and their distinct effects. Kilian (2009) analyzes the effects of an oil supply shock, an aggregate demand shock, and a precautionary oil demand shock. The paper''s aim is to...

The recent plunge in oil prices has brought into question the generally accepted view that lower oil prices are good for the United States and the global economy. In this paper, using a quarterly multi-country econometric model, we first show that a fall in oil prices tends relatively quickly to...

This paper documents the determinants of real oil price in the global market based on SVAR model embedding transitory and permanent shocks on oil demand and supply as well as speculative disturbances. We find evidence of significant differences in the propagation mechanisms of transitory versus...

This paper examines the relationship between monetary policy and oil prices within a world oil demand and supply model. Low price and high income elasticities of demand and rigid supply explain high price volatilities and producers'' market power. Exchange and interest rates do influence oil...

We use a calibrated multi-sector DSGE model to analyze the likely impact of oil windfalls on the Ghanaian economy, under alternative fiscal and monetary policy responses. We distinguish between the short-run impact, associated with demand-related pressures, and the medium run impact on...

The paper uses MULTIMOD to analyze the macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks, distinguishing between temporary, more persistent, and permanent shocks. It provides perspectives on several findings in the literature and the key role of monetary policy in influencing macroeconomic outcomes....

This paper investigates the causes of extreme fluctuations in commodity prices from 1990 to 2010. Analyzing two very distinct commodities-crude oil and fine wine, we find that macroeconomic factors are the main determinants of commodity prices. Although supply constraints have the expected...