We formulate the “High Liquidity Creation Hypothesis” (HLCH) that a proliferation in the core activity of bank liquidity creation increases failure probability. We test the HLCH in the context of Russian banking, which provides a natural field experiment due to numerous failures experienced...

The global financial crisis (GFC) has renewed interest in emergency liquidity support (sometimes referred to as 'Lender of Last Resort') provided by central banks to financial institutions and challenged the traditional way of conducting these operations. Despite a vast literature on the topic,...

We present a novel approach that incorporates individual entity stress testing and losses from systemic risk effects (SE losses) into macroprudential stress testing. SE losses are measured using a reduced-form model to value financial entity assets, conditional on macroeconomic stress and the...

Credit is key to support healthy and sustainable economic growth but excess aggregate credit growth can signal the build-up of imbalances and lead to systemic financial crisis. Hence, monitoring the credit cycle is key to identifying vulnerabilities, particularly in emerging markets, which tend...

Developing economies can strengthen their financial systems by implementing the main elements of global regulatory reform. But to build an effective prudential framework, they may need to adapt international standards taking into account the sophistication and size of their financial...

This paper looks at the vulnerabilities stemming from banking sector linkages between countries and their macroeconomic effects. It finds that credit risks (from a banking system’s claims on other countries) and funding risks (from a banking system’s liabilities to another) have declined...

We analyze the transmission of bank-specific liquidity shocks triggered by a credit rating downgrade through the lending channel. Using bank-level data for US Bank Holding Companies, we find that a credit rating downgrade is associated with an immediate and persistent decline in access to...

This paper analyses the prudential liquidity management framework, in particular the quantitative indicators employed by the central bank of Rwanda in response to the domestic liquidity crisis in 2008/09. It emphasises that the quantitative methods used in the monitoring and assessment of...

The paper studies risk mitigation associated with capital regulation, in a context where banks may choose tail risk asserts. We show that this undermines the traditional result that high capital reduces excess risk-taking driven by limited liability. Moreover, higher capital may have an...

Rules of thumb can be useful in undertaking quick, robust, and readily interpretable bank stress tests. Such rules of thumb are proposed for the behavior of banks’ capital ratios and key drivers thereof—primarily credit losses, income, credit growth, and risk weights—in advanced and...