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Transitory and permanent shocks in the global market for crude oil
Rebei, Nooman; Sbia, Rashid - 2020
This paper documents the determinants of real oil price in the global market based on SVAR model embedding transitory and permanent shocks on oil demand and supply as well as speculative disturbances. We find evidence of significant differences in the propagation mechanisms of transitory versus...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012251290
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Financial frictions in data : evidence and impact
Taheri Sanjani, Marzie - 2014
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010479493
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Bayesian Vars : A Survey of the Recent Literature with An Application to the European Monetary System
Ciccarelli, Matteo - 2003
This paper reviews recent advances in the specification and estimation of Bayesian Vector Autoregressive models (BVARs …). After describing the Bayesian principle of estimation, we first present the methodology originally developed by Litterman … issues in forecasting and structural analysis. An application to the estimation of a system of time-varying reaction …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399636
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Shock from graying : is the demographic shift weakening monetary policy effectiveness
Imam, Patrick - 2013
effectiveness may moderate in graying societies. It then uses Bayesian estimation techniques for the U.S., Canada, Japan, U.K., and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012667511
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A quantitative microfounded model for the integrated policy framework
Adrian, Tobias; Erceg, Christopher J.; Kolasa, Marcin; … - 2021
We develop a microfounded New Keynesian model to analyze monetary policy and financial stability issues in open economies with financial fragilities and weakly anchored inflation expectations. We show that foreign exchange intervention (FXI) and capital flow management tools (CFMs) can improve...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012794931
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Managing macrofinancial risk
Adrian, Tobias; Vitek, Francis - 2020
We augment a linearized dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with a tractable endogenous risk mechanism, to support the joint analysis of monetary and macroprudential policy. This state dependent conditional heteroskedasticity mechanism specifies the conditional variances of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012300643
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Model-based globally-consistent risk assessment
Andrle, Michal; Hunt, Benjamin F. - 2020
This paper outlines an approach to assess uncertainty around a forecast baseline as well as the impact of alternative policy rules on macro variability. The approach allows for non-Gaussian shock distributions and non-linear underlying macroeconomic models. Consequently, the resulting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012251371
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Fiscal foresight and information flows
Leeper, Eric M.; Walker, Todd B.; Yang, Shu-Chun S. - 2012
react. Using tax policies as a leading example of foresight, simple theory makes transparent the economic behavior and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009618558
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The U.S. oil supply revolution and the global economy
Mohaddes, Kamiar; Raissi, Mehdi - 2015
This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of falling oil prices due to the oil revolution in the United States, using a Global VAR model estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Set-identification of the U.S. oil supply shock is achieved through...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011445835
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Policy and spillover analysis in the world economy : a panel dynamic stochastic general equilibrium approach
Vitek, Francis - 2014
This paper develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into forty national economies. This panel dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model features a range of nominal and real rigidities, extensive macrofinancial linkages, and diverse spillover...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012692504