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Nowcasting GDP : a scalable approach using DFM, machine learning and novel data, applied to European economies

Dauphin, Jean-François; Dybczak, Kamil; Maneely, Morgan; … - 2022

This paper describes recent work to strengthen nowcasting capacity at the IMF's European department. It motivates and compiles datasets of standard and nontraditional variables, such as Google search and air quality. It applies standard dynamic factor models (DFMs) and several machine learning...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013169983

Real sectoral spillovers : a dynamic factor analysis of the Great Recession

Li, Nan; Martin, Vance - 2018

This paper studies changes in the transmission of common versus sectoral idiosyncratic shocks across different U.S. nonfarm business sectors during the Great Recession, and evaluates the cross-sectoral spillovers. Shocks are identified by dynamic factor methods. We find that the Great Recession...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011852597

The global economic recovery 10 years after the 2008 financial crisis

Chen, Wenjie; Mrkaic, Mico; Nabar, Malhar - 2019

productivity shortfalls relative to precrisis trends. Policy choices preceding the crisis and in its immediate aftermath influenced …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012019853

Gdp Growth, Potential Output, and Output Gaps in Mexico

Faal, Ebrima - 2005

assessed. Looking ahead, the paper presents medium-term paths for GDP based on alternative assumptions for productivity growth … total factor productivity growth. Economic policy reforms and the introduction of NAFTA may have raised trend productivity … growth in recent years. Further increases in productivity growth would appear necessary, however, to raise medium-term growth …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400927

The negative mean output gap

Aiyar, Shekhar; Voigts, Simon - 2019

We argue that in an economy with downward nominal wage rigidity, the output gap is negative on average. Because it is more difficult to cut wages than to increase them, firms reduce employment more during downturns than they increase employment during expansions. This is demonstrated in a simple...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012103632

How informative are real time output gap estimates in Europe?

Kangur, Alvar; Kirabaeva, Koralai; Natal, Jean-Marc; … - 2019

We study the properties of the IMF-WEO estimates of real-time output gaps for countries in the euro area as well as the determinants of their revisions over 1994-2017. The analysis shows that staff typically saw economies as operating below their potential. In real time, output gaps tend to have...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012103755

Measuring output gap : is it worth your Time?

Chen, Jiaqian; Górnicka, Lucyna - 2020

We apply a range of models to the U.K. data to obtain estimates of the output gap. A structural VAR with an appropriate identification strategy provides improved estimates of output gap with better real time properties and lower sensitivity to temporary shocks than the usual filtering...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012170152

Precautionary savings in the Great Recession

Mody, Ashoka; Ohnsorge, Franziska; Sandri, Damiano - 2012

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009572544

Inflation dynamics and the Great Recession

Ball, Laurence M.; Mazumder, Sandeep - 2011

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009425658

Business Cycles and Workers' Remittances : How Do Migrant Workers Respond to Cyclical Movements of GDP At Home?

Sayan, Serdar - 2006

Workers'' remittances are often argued to have a tendency to move countercyclically with the GDP in recipient countries since migrant workers are expected to remit more during down cycles of economic activity back home. Yet, how much to remit is a complex decision involving other factors, and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400536

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