their forecasting performance. Based on the evaluation results, a new forecasting framework is developed for GDP projections … performance to past projections. Results show that the performance of the new framework often improves the forecasts, especially …

Inflation has been below the Federal Reserve's target for much of the past 20 years, creating worries that inflation … forecasters, household and business surveys, and the market for Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS) to estimate long …-run inflation expectations. These have fallen notably in the past few years (to roughly 1.9 percent for CPI inflation, well below …

This paper examines the recent behavior of core inflation in the United States. We specify a simple Phillips curve … based on the assumptions that inflation expectations are fully anchored at the Federal Reserve’s target, and that labor …-market slack is captured by the level of shortterm unemployment. This equation explains inflation behavior since 2000, including …

structures across countries and selects the optimal pool of countries to maximize out-of-sample prediction accuracy of a model … improve forecast accuracy relative to alternative pools. The algortihm improves nowcast performance for advanced economies, as …

improve the transparency of machine learning-based forecasts. Applying the framework to Turkey reduces forecast errors by at …

oil prices have significant effects on inflation. Results also suggest a significant impact of FDI and passport sales on …