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Raising South Africa's low employment rate to levels seen in emerging market or advanced economy peers could raise GDP per capita by 50 to 60 percent and reduce income inequality dramatically in the long term. By putting further strain on an already fragile labor market, Covid-19 has raised the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012612327
The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014395963
This paper proposes a hidden state Markov model (HMM) that incorporates workers' unobserved labor market attachment into the analysis of labor market dynamics. Unlike previous literature, which typically assumes that a worker's observed labor force status follows a first-order Markov process,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012155058
The paper examines the consequences of fiscal consolidation in times of persistently low growth and high unemployment … unemployment at five-year horizons are significantly above one during PR episodes. These results suggest that medium-term fiscal …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014411769
using macroeconomic data on employment, unemployment, participation, and (for Canada) migration and real wages. We find that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402300
The Great Recession pushed Japan’s unemployment rate to historic highs, but the increase has been small by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014403441
Labor markets in the UK have been characterized by markedly widening wage inequality for lowskill (non-college) women, a trend that predates the pandemic. We examine the contribution of job polarization to this trend by estimating age, period, and cohort effects for the likelihood of employment...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013170024
This paper analyzes the determinants of high unemployment in South Africa by studying labor market dynamics using … on unemployment. The paper also explores the contribution of unemployment towards inequality. Reducing unemployment is … found to be important for reducing inequality - estimates suggest that a 10 percentage point reduction in unemployment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011711738
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009423213
This paper applies a disaggregated method for the calculation of the cyclical component of the budget balance for South Africa with an emphasis on the effect of commodity and asset prices, and credit cycle. Results show that the cyclicality of tax revenue is mostly explained by the variations in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014397572