Merton''s (1974) structural model of credit risk. The indicator is estimated using equity prices and balance-sheet data for … 38 banks in 14 emerging market countries. Results show it can predict a bank''s credit deterioration up to nine months in …

credit gap. Moreover, aggregating this information flags financial crisis many years before the crisis. Lastly, we find that …

of leveraged bubbles, while vulnerabilities in emerging markets stemmed from lengthy booms in credit and asset prices … sample of countries, and we use our results to generate 'histories of vulnerabilities' for countries, regions, and the world …

Episodes of rapid credit growth, especially credit booms, tend to end abruptly, typically in the form of financial … crises. This paper presents the findings of a comprehensive event study focusing on 99 credit booms. Loose monetary policy … stances seem to have contributed to the build-up of credit booms across both advanced and emerging economies. In particular …

financial systems where risks originated in excessive credit booms. We can use the lens of macroeconomic and financial history … to confront these dueling hypotheses with evidence. The credit boom explanation is the most plausible predictor of crises …

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, the issue of how best to identify speculative asset bubbles (in real … boom-bust episodes, the approach is signaling mounting vulnerabilities in risky U.S. credit markets. Policy makers and …-crisis financial infrastructure is braced to accommodate a re-pricing in credit risk …