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Forecasts in times of crises
Eicher, Theo S.; Kuenzel, David J.; Papageorgiou, Chris; … - 2018
Financial crises pose unique challenges for forecast accuracy. Using the IMF's Monitoring of Fund Arrangement (MONA) database, we conduct the most comprehensive evaluation of IMF forecasts to date for countries in times of crises. We examine 29 macroeconomic variables in terms of bias,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011932572
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Exchange rate elasticities of international tourism and the role of dominant currency pricing
Ding, Ding; Timmer, Yannick - 2022
We estimate a variety of exchange rate elasticities of international tourism. We show that, in addition to the … bilateral exchange rate between the tourism origin and destination countries, the exchange rate vis-a-vis the US dollar is also … an important driver of tourism flows and pricing. The effect of US dollar pricing is stronger for tourism destination …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013170287
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Measuring output gap : is it worth your Time?
Chen, Jiaqian; Górnicka, Lucyna - 2020
identification strategy provides improved estimates of output gap with better real time properties and lower sensitivity to temporary … time, however, our results suggest caution in basing policy decisions on output gap estimates …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012170152
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Perfect storm : climate change and tourism
Cevik, Serhan; Ghazanchyan, Manuk - 2020
threat to vulnerable countries that are highly dependent on a weather-sensitive sector like tourism. Using a novel … multidimensional index, this study investigates the long-term impact of climate change vulnerability on international tourism in a … statistically and economically significant negative effect on international tourism revenues across the region. As extreme weather …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012392570
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Coordinating revenue incentive policies in the Caribbean
Ding, Ding; Kalla, Samira; Rosales, Manuel; Sidibé, … - 2020
The pervasive use of tax incentives is costly for the Caribbean countries, yet the benefits seem limited. Better policy coordination at the regional level is needed to help overcome the collective action problems and generate more revenue to support the much-needed infrastructure investment....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012301961
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Caribbean growth in an international perspective : the role of tourism and size
Thacker, Nita; Acevedo, Sebastian; Perrelli, Roberto - 2012
is explained more by a decline in productivity rather than a lack of investment. Second, tourism has been a significant …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009659894
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Flying to paradise : the role of airlift in the Caribbean tourism industry
Acevedo, Sebastian; Han, Lu; Hye Sun Kim; Laframboise, … - 2016
This paper studies the role of airlift supply on the tourism sector in the Caribbean. The paper examines the relative …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011434735
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Diversion of tourism flows in the Asia & Pacific region : lessons for COVID-19 recovery
Balasundharam, Vybhavi; Koepke, Robin - 2021
The COVID-19 pandemic prompted a collapse in international tourism, severely impacting the tourism-dependent economies … in the Asia and Pacific region. Once countries start reopening, tourism diversion effects could accelerate the recovery … of previous shocks in tourism competitor countries on visitor inflows, with a particular focus on tourism …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012796804
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Japan's inbound tourism boom : lessons for its post-COVID-19 revival
Anh Thi Ngoc Nguyen - 2020
In this paper, we review developments in Japanese inbound tourism and investigate the main determinants of its rapid … growth prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model with data on 34 tourism … source markets from 1996Q1 to 2018Q4, we find that not only tourist income and tourism-related relative prices, also visa …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012301934
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Going viral : a gravity model of infectious diseases and tourism flows
Cevik, Serhan - 2020
This paper develops a gravity model framework to estimate the impact of infectious diseases on bilateral tourism flows … among 38,184 pairs of countries over the period 1995-2017. The results confirm that international tourism is adversely … tourism flows to advanced economies, the magnitude and statistical significance of the impact of infectious diseases are much …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012252260