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Inflation has been below the Federal Reserve's target for much of the past 20 years, creating worries that inflation … forecasters, household and business surveys, and the market for Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS) to estimate long …-run inflation expectations. These have fallen notably in the past few years (to roughly 1.9 percent for CPI inflation, well below …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012392558
stability objective in the inflation targeting countries, links to inflation and the output gap are generally weaker and less …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012170089
Since the global financial crisis, non-reserve-issuing economies (NREs) have been highly sensitive to episodes of external pressures. With monetary policy independence constrained by this sensitivity, many NREs have utilized other policy instruments. This paper confirms the vulnerability of NREs...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012486120
The experience of the Great Recession and its aftermath revealed that a lower bound on interest rates can be a serious obstacle for fighting recessions. However, the zero lower bound is not a law of nature; it is a policy choice. The central message of this paper is that with readily available...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012019855
We present new evidence on how heterogeneity in banks interacts with monetary policy changes to impact bank lending. Using an exogenous policy measure identified from narratives on FOMC intentions and real-time economic forecasts, we find much greater heterogeneity in U.S. bank lending responses...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014395177
of output volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011748730
Dutch disease is often referred as a situation in which large and sustained foreign currency inflows lead to a contraction of the tradable sector by giving rise to a real appreciation of the home currency. This paper documents that this syndrome has been witnessed by many emerging markets and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012605138
Germany to confirm a weakening of monetary policy effectiveness over time with regards to unemployment and inflation. After … impact on the economy—given better anchored inflation expectations and inflation being less responsive to variation in … unemployment—compared to the past. We examine another aspect that could explain this empirical finding, namely the demographic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012667511
increase in inflation. The model explains the joint dynamics of output, inflation, real wages, and interest rates, and is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401278
This paper proposes a hidden state Markov model (HMM) that incorporates workers' unobserved labor market attachment into the analysis of labor market dynamics. Unlike previous literature, which typically assumes that a worker's observed labor force status follows a first-order Markov process,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012155058