Adequate modeling of the seasonal structure of consumer prices is essential for inflation forecasting. This paper … suggests a new econometric approach for jointly determining inflation forecasts and monetary policy stances, particularly where … money growth and implied exchange rate paths along with a jointly determined inflation forecast. The approach uses two broad …

This study examines the macroeconomic determinants of survey inflation expectations in Brazil since the adoption of … inflation targeting in 1999. The results suggest that the inflation targeting framework has helped anchor expectations, with the … dispersion of inflation expectations declining considerably, particularly during periods of high uncertainty. We also find that …

This paper contains an empirical analysis of currency substitution in Turkey: a simple relationship between the share … of foreign currency holdings in M2X on one side and movements in the exchange rate or inflation on the other is derived … depends mainly on long-term movements in the exchange rate, while the effect of inflation on currency substitution is not …

Against the backdrop of an ongoing review of the inflation-targeting framework, this paper examines the real …-time inflation forecasts of the Bank of Canada with the aim of identifying potential areas for improvement. Not surprisingly, the … results show that errors in forecasting non-core inflation (commodity prices et cetera) are found to be the largest …

Inflation has been below the Federal Reserve's target for much of the past 20 years, creating worries that inflation … forecasters, household and business surveys, and the market for Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS) to estimate long …-run inflation expectations. These have fallen notably in the past few years (to roughly 1.9 percent for CPI inflation, well below …

This paper examines the recent behavior of core inflation in the United States. We specify a simple Phillips curve … based on the assumptions that inflation expectations are fully anchored at the Federal Reserve’s target, and that labor …-market slack is captured by the level of shortterm unemployment. This equation explains inflation behavior since 2000, including …

the reaction of 18 large emerging markets to an external shock, conditioning on their degree of inflation expectations … anchoring, countries with weakly anchored inflation expectations experienced larger exchange rate pass-through to consumer … prices, hence comparatively higher inflation. We conclude that efforts to improve the extent of anchoring of inflation …

Anchoring of inflation expectations is of paramount importance for central banks' ability to deliver stable inflation … and minimize price dispersion. Relying on daily interest rates and inflation forecasts from major financial institutions … the dispersion of inflation expectations, a proxy for the extent of anchoring, which is based on the same analysts …

We estimate the determinants of disagreement about future inflation in a large and diverse sample of countries … literature on the benefits of inflation targeting regimes and central bank transparency. The reduction in disagreement that … follows the adoption of inflation targeting is entirely due to increased central bank transparency. Since the benefits of …