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We examine the impact of uncertainty on employment dynamics. Alternative measures of uncertainty are constructed based on the survey of professional forecasters, and regressionbased forecasting models for GDP growth, inflation, S&P500 stock price index, and fuel prices. Our results indicate that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010479342
explores how much of these large movements reflected shifts in (i) global risk aversion (ii) country-specific risks, directly … in the crisis, the surge in global risk aversion was a significant factor influencing sovereign spreads, while recently … Spain, as the emphasis has shifted towards short-term refinancing risk and long-term fiscal sustainability. The paper …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402913
Investors seek to hedge against interest rate risk by taking long or short positions on bonds of different maturities …. We study changes in risk taking behavior in a low interest rate environment by estimating a market stochastic discount … literature. We provide evidence that non-linearities arise from hedging strategies of investors exposed to interest rate risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012251301
This paper examines the recent behavior of core inflation in the United States. We specify a simple Phillips curve based on the assumptions that inflation expectations are fully anchored at the Federal Reserve’s target, and that labor-market slack is captured by the level of shortterm...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011281898
voting decisions. Thus, risk neutral individuals exhibit what we call political risk aversion. Yet individual uncertainty is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402381
changes in bond spreads over the sample, global market risk factors are fundamental driving forces during periods of stress …. The relative importance of the different risk factors changes substantially depending on the crisis episode. Contagion …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400361
phenomenon. In addition to risk aversion, equity premium may reflect ambiguity aversion. We explore the sources of equity premium … using some pertinent fundamental independent variables, as well as the World Bank institutional quality indexes and other … proxies for the degree of ambiguity in the sample countries. Some World Bank and other indexes are statistically significant …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399705
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010359849
Lockdowns imposed around the world to contain the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic are having a differential impact on … jobs are most at risk. We estimate that over 97.3 million workers, equivalent to about 15 percent of the workforce, are at … high risk of layoffs and furlough across the 35 advanced and emerging countries in our sample. Workers least likely to work …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012251964
The paper surveys the characteristics of explicit systems of deposit insurance in 68 countries. It compares these actual practices with a set of best practices that has been adopted by IMF staff for their advice to member countries. These best practices seek to establish a system of deposit...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400419