In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, the issue of how best to identify speculative asset bubbles (in real-time) remains in flux. This owes to the difficulty of disentangling irrational investor exuberance from the rational response to lower risk based on price behavior alone. In...

Efficient and stable payments systems are of fundamental importance in maintaining an orderly international monetary system. Major disruptions of national and international payments systems would have highly adverse effects on international trade, capital flows, and real activity. A key...

This paper has two objectives: first, by reviewing the recent experience of five Latin American countries with the restructuring of their financial sectors, it derives lessons regarding the most effective ways to resolve banking difficulties in developing countries. Second, the paper analyzes...

This paper examines the generation of financial crises in developing economies and shows that the microeconomic structure of the financial sector is a crucial factor in creating the conditions for a crisis. Structural problems of the financial system in developing countries, including implicit...

This paper studies under what circumstances creditworthy sovereign borrowers may be denied liquidity by rational creditors. It is shown that, when the creditor side of the market consists of many small investors there may be multiple rational expectations equilibria. In one equilibrium,...

Financial sector reform in the Baltic countries is reviewed in light of the banking crises that emerged during the reform period. It is argued that the crises had their roots in the structural deficiencies specific to planned economies and the financial environment that developed before and...

We propose a new Financial Condition Index (FCI) for Asian economies based on two different methodologies: a VAR model and a Dynamic Factor Model. The paper shows that this index has predictive power in forecasting GDP growth and may be thus used as a leading indicator. Based on the FCI,...