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With public debt soaring across the world, a growing concern is whether current debt levels are a harbinger of fiscal crises, thereby restricting the policy space in a downturn. The empirical evidence to date is however inconclusive, and the true cost of debt may be overstated if interest rates...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012170046
debt increases in the run up to a crisis. But in the face of persistent primary deficits, debt service tends to rise … abruptly-particularly in emerging markets-and a fiscal crisis ensues. There is also evidence that a large part of the debt …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012796777
Epidemics may have social scarring effects, increasing the likelihood of social unrest. They may also have mitigating effect, suppressing unrest by dissuading social activities. Using a new monthly panel on social unrest in 130 countries, we find a positive cross-sectional relationship between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012517929
We evaluate the direct employment effect of the public investment in key infrastructure-electricity, roads, schools and … million of public spending in infrastructure create 3-7 jobs in advanced economies, 10-17 jobs in emerging market economies …-11 jobs in R and D in OECD countries. Green investment and investment with a larger R and D component deliver higher …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012613477
specific language like 'fear', 'risk', 'hedging', 'opinion', and, 'crisis', as well as 'positive' and 'negative' sentiments, in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012155004
This paper studies the effect of demographic change on national saving, global interest rates, and international capital flows, focusing on the role of the public pension system. We develop a small open economy overlapping generations model to illustrate the channels through which demographic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011978553
We analyze the impact of trade policy uncertainty on investment in the euro area. Our identification strategy assumes … that countries that are relatively more dependent on global trade networks exhibit a higher sensitivity of investment with … respect to trade uncertainty. We find that the investment-to-GDP ratio is on average 0.8 percentage points lower for five …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011978678
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