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Business Cycles in Small Developed Economies : The Role of Terms of Trade and Foreign Interest Rate Shocks

Guajardo, Jaime - 2008

Empirical evidence for small developed economies finds that consumption is procyclical and as volatile as output, and real net exports are coutercyclical. Earlier studies have not been able to reproduce these regularities in a DSGE small open economy model when productivity shocks drive the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401081

Terms of Trade Shocks and Economic Recovery

Imam, Patrick - 2008

This paper identifies factors that contribute to a fast recovery in growth after persistent negative terms of trade shocks, using a sample of 159 countries for 1970-2006. The results suggest that policies matter. Fast recoveries are fairly robustly related to real exchange rate depreciation and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401873

Emerging Markets Crisis : An Asset Markets Perspective

Krishnamurthy, Arvind - 1999

The entire difference between a mild downturn and a devastating crisis is the occurrence of sharp fire sales of domestic assets and possibly foreign exchange and the ensuing collapse in the balance sheets of both the financial and nonfinancial sector. Why and how do such crises materialize? And...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400170

The sources of business cycles in a low income country

Houssa, Romain; Mohimont, Jolan; Otrok, Christopher M. - 2015

We examine the role of global and domestic shocks in driving macroeconomic fluctuations for Ghana. We are able to study the impact of exogenous shocks including productivity, credit supply, and commodity price shocks. We identify the shocks with a combination of sign and recursive restrictions...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011281912

Macroeconomic Responses to Terms-Of-Trade Shocks : A Framework for Policy Analysis for the Argentine Economy

Berkmen, Pelin - 2009

This paper presents a version of the global integrated monetary fiscal (GIMF) model adapted and calibrated to the Argentine economy. The model replicates the effect of the strong improvement in Argentina''s terms of trade stemming from higher world commodity prices as well as other key economic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402488

Commodity price cycles : the perils of mismanaging the boom

Adler, Gustavo; Sosa, Sebastián - 2011

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009419731

Emerging economy business cycles : financial integration and terms of trade shocks

Bhattacharya, Rudrani; Patnaik, Ila; Pundit, Madhavi - 2013

This paper analyses the extent to which financial integration impacts the manner in which terms of trade affect business cycles in emerging economies. Using a s mall open economy model, we show that as capital account openness increases in an economy that faces trade shocks, business cycle...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011705394

Terms-of-trade shocks are not all alike

Di Pace, Federico; Juvenal, Luciana; Petrella, Ivan - 2020

When analyzing terms-of-trade shocks, it is implicitly assumed that the economy responds symmetrically to changes in export and import prices. Using a sample of developing countries our paper shows that this is not the case. We construct export and import price indices using commodity and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012486066

Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks : Evidence From Developing Countries

Ostry, Jonathan David - 1991

fall in response to a transitory terms of trade shock, depending on the values of the intertemporal elasticity of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014398110

Financial deepening, terms of trade shocks, and growth volatility in low-income countries

Kpodar, Kangni; Le Goff, Maëlan; Singh, Raju Jan - 2019

sector development acts as a shock-absorber in poor countries, dampening the transmission of terms of trade shocks to growth … volatility. Expanding the sample to 121 developing countries confirms this result, although this role of shock-absorber fades … away as economies grow richer. Stock market development, by contrast, appears neither to be a shock-absorber nor a shock …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012009977