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How informative are real time output gap estimates in Europe?

Kangur, Alvar; Kirabaeva, Koralai; Natal, Jean-Marc; … - 2019

We study the properties of the IMF-WEO estimates of real-time output gaps for countries in the euro area as well as the determinants of their revisions over 1994-2017. The analysis shows that staff typically saw economies as operating below their potential. In real time, output gaps tend to have...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012103755

Impacton Intra-European Trade Agreements, 1990-2005 : Policy Implications for the Western Balkans and Ukraine

Qiao, Zhaogang - 2007

The paper provides quantitative estimates of the impact of the European trade agreements on trade flows. It applies both static and dynamic panel estimation techniques. The results are useful to policymakers because new intra-European trade agreements are being negotiated. In the absence of a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400337

Workers’ Remittances : An Overlooked Channel of International Business Cycle Transmission?

Barajas, Adolfo - 2012

-recipient countries and the rest of the world. Using both aggregate and bilateral remittances data in a panel data setting, the study … analysis suggests that measures of openness and spillovers could be enhanced by accounting for the role of the remittances …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014395620

Workers’ remittances : an overlooked channel of international business cycle transmission?

Barajas, Adolfo; Chami, Ralph; Ebeke, Christian; … - 2012

-recipient countries and the rest of the world. Using both aggregate and bilateral remittances data in a panel data setting, the study …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012684358

Economic convergence in the euro area : coming together or drifting apart?

Franks, Jeffrey Richard; Barkbu, Bergljot Bjørnson; … - 2018

We examine economic convergence among euro area countries on multiple dimensions. While there was nominal convergence … of inflation and interest rates, real convergence of per capita income levels has not occurred among the original euro … area members since the advent of the common currency. Income convergence stagnated in the early years of the common …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011799568

Economic Integration and Financial Stability : A European Perspective

De Nicolò, Gianni - 2006

This paper assesses changes in synchronization of real activity and financial market integration in Western Europe and evaluates their implications for financial stability. We find increased synchronization of real activity since the early 1980s and increased equity markets integration since the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399790

The Role of Financial Variables in Predicting Economic Activity in the Euro Area

Lombardi, Marco - 2009

The U.S. business cycle typically leads the European cycle by a few quarters and this can be used to forecast euro area GDP. We investigate whether financial variables carry additional information. We use vector autoregressions (VARs) which include the U.S. and the euro area GDPs as a minimal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402234

Demand Spillovers and the Collapse of Trade in the Global Recession

Yi, Kei-mu - 2010

This paper uses a global input-output framework to quantify US and EU demand spillovers and the elasticity of world trade to GDP during the global recession of 2008-2009. We find that 20-30 percent of the decline in the US and EU demand was borne by foreign countries, with NAFTA, Emerging...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402796

How Russia Affects the Neighborhood : Trade, Financial, and Remittance Channels

Espinosa-Bowen, Jaime - 2009

We test the extent to which growth in the 11 CIS countries (excluding Russia) was associated with developments in Russia, overall, as well as through the trade, financial and remittance channels over the last decade or so. The results point to the continued existence of economic links between...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402216

Effects of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU)on Taxation and Interest Spending of National Governments

Mongelli, Francesco Paolo - 1997

This paper examines the interest spending and taxation channels through which EMU could affect the public finances. It provides a framework for examining different views on a further narrowing of interest rate differentials. A model of Blanchard and Fischer is amended to analyze the two...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401206