We explore empirically how the time-varying allocation of credit across firms with heterogeneous credit quality matters … credit allocation, captured by Greenwood and Hanson (2013)'s ISS indicator, helps predict downside risks to GDP growth and … systemic banking crises, two to three years ahead. Our analysis indicates that the riskiness of credit allocation is both a …

This paper studies episodes in which aggregate bank credit contracts alongside expanding economic activity-credit …--on average, they occur every five years. By comparison, banking crises take place every eight years on average. Credit reversals …

Credit spreads rise after a monetary policy tightening, yet spread reactions are heterogeneous across firms. Exploiting … with high leverage experience a more pronounced increase in credit spreads than firms with low leverage. A large fraction … of this increase is due to a component of credit spreads that is in excess of firms' expected default. Our results …

experiencing a currency crisis, while high levels of credit to the private sector increase it. We find that the logit and probit …

-service-to-income ratios, in affecting developments in house prices and credit. We use data on 99 lending standard restrictions implemented in … house prices and credit. However, the impact is delayed and reaches its peak only after three years. In addition, the impact …