This paper outlines an approach to assess uncertainty around a forecast baseline as well as the impact of alternative policy rules on macro variability. The approach allows for non-Gaussian shock distributions and non-linear underlying macroeconomic models. Consequently, the resulting...

Empirically, output and asset returns are highly positively correlated across the United States and the other major industrialized countries. Standard business cycle models that assume flexible prices and wages, in the Real Business Cycle tradition, have great difficulties explaining this fact....

In a SVAR model of the US, the response of the relative price of durables to a monetary contraction is either flat or mildly positive. It significantly falls only if narrowly defined as the ratio between new-house and nondurables prices. These findings are rationalized via the estimation of a...

Empirical evidence suggests that goods are highly heterogeneous with respect to the degree of price rigidity. We develop a DSGE model featuring heterogeneous nominal rigidities across two sectors to study the equilibrium determinacy and stability under adaptive learning for interest rate rules...

This paper develops a two-country monetary DSGE (dynamic stochastic general equilibrium) model in which households choose a portfolio of home and foreign equities, and a forward position in foreign exchange. Some goods prices are set without full information of the state. Home and foreign...

This paper studies the main channels through which interest rate normalization has fiscal implications in the United States. While unexpected inflation reduces the real value of government liabilities, a rising policy rate increases government financing needs because of higher interest payments...

The paper assesses, using seven structural models used heavily by policymaking institutions, the effectiveness of temporary fiscal stimulus. Models can, more easily than empirical studies, account for differences between fiscal instruments, for differences between structural characteristics of...

This paper develops a small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of the Armenian economy. The structure of the model is largely motivated by recent developments in DSGE modeling, with key extensions to incorporate specific structural characteristics of the Armenian...