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This paper provides a quantitative exploration of international spillovers of macroeconomic shocks among the major industrial economies. The particular topical example analyzed here concerns the possible effects on the industrial economies of adverse shocks to the current U.S. economic...
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between the United States and the rest of the world, this paper asks to what extent an asymmetric productivity shock in the … second half of the 1990s. The paper concludes that the Balassa-Samuelson effect of such a productivity shock is only part of … the story. A second shock, a broadly defined “risk premium” shock, and some uncertainty about the persistence of both …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399692
Our answer: Not so well. We reached that conclusion after reviewing recent research on the role of technology as a source of economic fluctuations. The bulk of the evidence suggests a limited role for aggregate technology shocks, pointing instead to demand factors as the main force behind the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014403910
I study the implications of productivity shocks in a model where agents observe the aggregate level of productivity but … shock is sluggish and peaks with delay; (ii) permanent shocks generate positive rather than negative savings on impact; and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400934
We investigate the long-run relationship between the real exchange rate, traded and nontraded productivity levels, and … find that in 1991 (the last year productivity data are available) there is less overvaluation of the U.S. dollar than that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401799
VAR methods suggest that the monetary transmission mechanism may be weak and unreliable in low-income countries (LICs). But are structural VARs identified via short-run restrictions capable of detecting a transmission mechanism when one exists, under research conditions typical of these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011705702
After 2007, countries that cut their policy interest rates close to zero turned, among other policies, to forward guidance. We estimate a two-country model of the U.S. and Canada to quantify how unexpected changes in U.S. forward guidance affected Canada. Expansionary U.S. forward guidance...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011852669
We develop a simple approach to identify economic news and monetary shocks at a high frequency. The approach is used to examine financial market developments in the United States following the Federal Reserve’s May 22, 2013 taper talk suggesting that it would begin winding down its...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014411524
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