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The Chicago Plan revisited : conference paper
Benes, Jaromir; Kumhof, Michael - 2014
At the height of the Great Depression a number of leading U.S. economists advanced a proposal for monetary reform that became known as the Chicago Plan. It envisaged the separation of the monetary and credit functions of the banking system, by requiring 100% reserve backing for deposits. Irving...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010481421
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How well do economists forecast recessions?
An, Zidong; Jalles, João Tovar; Loungani, Prakash - 2018
We describe the evolution of forecasts in the run-up to recessions. The GDP forecasts cover 63 countries for the years 1992 to 2014. The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware that recession years will be different from other years, they miss the magnitude of the recession...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012112326
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On the macroeconomic consequences of over-optimism
Beaudry, Paul; Willems, Tim - 2018
Is over-optimism about a country's future growth perspective good for an economy, or does over-optimism also come with costs? In this paper we provide evidence that recessions, fiscal problems, as well as Balance of Payment-difficulties are more likely to arise in countries where past growth...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011866376
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Is the cycle the trend? : evidence from the views of international forecasters
Bluedorn, John Christopher; Leigh, Daniel - 2018
We revisit the conventional view that output fluctuates around a stable trend by analyzing professional long-term forecasts for 38 advanced and emerging market economies. If transitory deviations around a trend dominate output fluctuations, then forecasters should not change their long-term...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011878713
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An extended quarterly projection model : credit cycle, macrofinancial linkages and macroprudential measures : the case of the Philippines
Karam, Philippe; Pranovich, Mikhail; Vlček, Jan - 2021
We extend a modern practical Quarterly Projection Model to study credit cycle dynamics and risks, focusing on macrofinancial linkages and the role of macroprudential policy in achieving economic and financial stability. We tailor the model to the Philippines and evaluate the model's properties...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012796309
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What Happens During Recessions, Crunches, and Busts?
Terrones, Marco - 2008
We provide a comprehensive empirical characterization of the linkages between key macroeconomic and financial variables around business and financial cycles for 21 OECD countries over the period 1960–2007. In particular, we analyze the implications of 122 recessions, 112 (28) credit...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400787
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The re-emerging privilege of euro area membership
Wiegand, Johannes - 2017
When the euro was introduced in 1998, one objective was to create an alternative global reserve currency that would … grant benefits to euro area countries similar to the U.S. dollar's 'exorbitant privliege': id est, a boost to the perceived … quality of euro denominated assets that would increase demand for such assets and reduce euro area members' funding costs …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011705308
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The effective lower bound for the policy rate in euroized economies : an application to the case of Albania
Della Valle, Guido; Themeli, Erald; Veyrune, Romain; … - 2018
Based on the experience of the Bank of Albania, the paper proposes a framework to estimate the interest rate lower bound in small, open, and euroized economies. The paper introduces a stylized monitoring tool to assess the unintended consequences of low policy rates. The paper is the first...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011848127
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Carry trade vs. deposit-driven euroization
Geng, Nan; Scutaru, Tiberiu; Wiegand, Johannes - 2018
Financial 'euroization'-or 'dollarization' outside of Central and Eastern Europe-is typically analyzed as a singular phenomenon that can be traced to a common set of factors. This paper argues that two types of euroization need to be distinguished, which have different causes, economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011848140
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Euroization drivers and effective policy response : an application to the case of Albania
Della Valle, Guido; Kota, Vasilika; Veyrune, Romain; … - 2018
financial stability risk due to euroization contribute to deeuroization inasmuch as they make banking intermediation in euro …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011799246