-causes inflation in the euro area. Based on data from 1970 to 2006 and forecasting horizons of up to 12 quarters, there is surprisingly … power of money growth for inflation is substantially lower in more recent sample periods compared to the 1970s and 1980s …. This cautions against using money-based inflation models anchored in very long samples for policy advice …

A stochastic volatility model where volatility was driven solely by a latent variable called news was estimated for … volatilities. Volatility persistence being close to one was consistent with both volatility clustering and mean reversion … specification improvements were always possible. The model corroborated stylized findings in volatility modeling and has potential …

Bayesian estimation of large VAR models. The method allows extracting information from over 100 series, opening the ""black box … the economy under the inflation-targeting regime. We find novel evidence that most of the channels of transmission are … large panel of data improves inflation forecasting performance over smaller models and renders this model suitable for …