There is ample empirical evidence for developed economies that asset prices contain information about future economic developments. But is this also the case in transition economies? Using a panel of monthly data for the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Russia, Slovakia, and Slovenia for the...

In this paper, we derive evidence on the integration of international stock markets from the cointegration properties of international stock market prices. Using the multivariate cointegration test of Johansen, we find that the set of six country stock price indices, including that of the United...

Financial conditions indexes are developed for the United States and euro area using a wide range of financial indicators and a dynamic factor model. The financial conditions indexes are shown to be useful for forecasting economic activity and have good revision properties

This paper introduces the quantile regression- based Distance-to-Default to Probability of Default (DD-PD) mapping, which links individual firms' DD to their real world PD. Since changes in the DD depend on a handful of parameters, the mapping easily accommodates shocks arising from quantitative...

This paper presents and discusses the estimates of the present value of corporate profits in the United States from 1984 to 2018. To value the expected income stream, it uses the long-range forecasts of professional forecasters for pre-tax corporate earnings and long-term Treasury note yields,...

During the period leading up to the global financial crisis many asset classes registered rapid price increases. This coincided with a significant rise in global liquidity. This paper attempts to determine the extent to which the rise in asset prices was influenced by developments in global...