Financial crises pose unique challenges for forecast accuracy. Using the IMF's Monitoring of Fund Arrangement (MONA … informational value as they consistently outperform naive forecast approaches. However, we also document that there is room for … improvement: two thirds of the key macroeconomic variables that we examine are forecast inefficiently and 6 variables (growth of …

China and Hong Kong SAR during the subprime crisis. Using both univariate and multivariate GARCH models, this paper finds … that China''s stock market is not immune to the financial crisis, as evidenced by the price and volatility spillovers from … the United States than China''s returns, and past volatility shocks in the United States have a more persistent effect on …