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The negative mean output gap
Aiyar, Shekhar; Voigts, Simon - 2019
the model's output gap as a benchmark, we further show that common output gap estimation methods exhibit a systematic bias …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012103632
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How informative are real time output gap estimates in Europe?
Kangur, Alvar; Kirabaeva, Koralai; Natal, Jean-Marc; … - 2019
We study the properties of the IMF-WEO estimates of real-time output gaps for countries in the euro area as well as the determinants of their revisions over 1994-2017. The analysis shows that staff typically saw economies as operating below their potential. In real time, output gaps tend to have...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012103755
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Hysteresis in labor markets? : evidence from professional long-term forecasts
Bluedorn, John Christopher; Leigh, Daniel - 2019
We explore the long-term impact of economic booms on labor market outcomes using a novel approach based on revisions to professional forecasts over the past 30 years for 34 advanced economies. We find that when employment rises unexpectedly, forecasters typically raise their long-term forecasts...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012022008
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Measuring output gap : is it worth your Time?
Chen, Jiaqian; Górnicka, Lucyna - 2020
We apply a range of models to the U.K. data to obtain estimates of the output gap. A structural VAR with an appropriate identification strategy provides improved estimates of output gap with better real time properties and lower sensitivity to temporary shocks than the usual filtering...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012170152
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How buoyant is the tax system? : new evidence from a large heterogeneous panel
Dudine, Paolo; Jalles, João Tovar - 2017
In this paper we provide short- and long-run tax buoyancy estimates for 107 countries (distributed between advanced, emerging and low-income) for the period 1980-2014. By means of Fully-Modified OLS and (Pooled) Mean Group estimators, we find that: i) for advanced economies both long-run and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011716400
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Testing for Purchasing Power Parity in Cointegrated Panels
Lyhagen, Johan - 2007
This paper applies the maximum likelihood panel cointegration method of Larsson and Lyhagen (2007) to test the strong … contrasted to those from the Pedroni (1995) cointegration tests and fully modified OLS and dynamic OLS esimators of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401245
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Cointegration of International Stock Market Indices
Chou, Ray Yeu-Tien - 1994
In this paper, we derive evidence on the integration of international stock markets from the cointegration properties … of international stock market prices. Using the multivariate cointegration test of Johansen, we find that the set of six … subgroup analyses also indicate that the cointegration relationships have become stronger over time. This is consistent with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014395829
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Real Exchange Rate Misalignment : A Panel Co-Integration and Common Factor Analysis
Yehoue, Etienne B. - 2005
We combine some newly developed panel co-integration techniques and common factor analysis to analyze the behavior of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014404212
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The cyclicality of sales, regular and effective prices : business cycle and policy implications
Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Hong, Gee Hee - 2012
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009621650
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Managing macrofinancial risk
Adrian, Tobias; Vitek, Francis - 2020
We augment a linearized dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with a tractable endogenous risk mechanism, to support the joint analysis of monetary and macroprudential policy. This state dependent conditional heteroskedasticity mechanism specifies the conditional variances of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012300643