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Hysteresis and business cycles
Cerra, Valerie; Fatás, Antonio; Saxena, Sweta Chaman - 2020
Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as 'hysteresis,' argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012251398
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The Austrian Theory of Business Cycles : Old Lessons for Modern Economic Policy?
Oppers, Stefan E. - 2002
This paper reviews the ""Austrian"" theory of the business cycle first proposed by Friedrich Hayek in the 1920s. His theory claimed that credit creation by monetary authorities would push investment beyond society''s long-term willingness to save, creating a mismatch between supply and demand...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400055
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Business Cycle in Czechoslovakia Under Central Planning : Were Credit Shocks Causing it?
Bulir, Ales - 1996
This paper examines credit origins of the business cycle in the former Czechoslovakia. Industrial production is found to be cointegrated with various measures of bank credit during 1976-90 and it is shown that noninvestment credits are Granger-causing industrial production and that a feedback...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014395925
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A General Equilibrium Model of Sovereign Default and Business Cycles
Yue, Vivian Z. - 2011
Emerging markets business cycle models treat default risk as part of an exogenous interest rate on working capital, while sovereign default models treat income fluctuations as an exogenous endowment process with ad-noc default costs. We propose instead a general equilibrium model of both...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399114
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Confidence as a driver of private investment in selected countries of Central America
Janada, Carlos Alfredo; Teodoru, Iulia Ruxandra - 2020
This paper argues that structural weaknesses may make private investment particularly sensitive to business confidence … relative to other traditional investment drivers and global shocks. It gauges the importance of confidence over recent years in …, including a set of investment drivers (interest rates, unit labor costs, and confidence) is analyzed. The findings suggest that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012485965
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What determines social distancing? : evidence from advanced and emerging market economies
Dabla-Norris, Era; Khan, Hibah; Lima, Frederico - 2021
The health and economic consequences of COVID-19 are closely tied to individual compliance with recommended protective behaviors. We examine the determinants of this compliance using survey data from the COVID Behavior Tracker for 29 advanced and emerging market economies between March and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012613656
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Give Trust a Chance : A Model of Trust in the Context of An Imf-Supported Program
Sembene, Daouda - 2007
This paper is an attempt to identify the determinants of trust between country authorities and IMF staff in the context of an IMF-supported program. Using an outcomes-based definition of trust, a game-theoretic model is developed to compute the level of trust between the two parties. The results...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400783
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Constructing Forecast Confidence Bands During the Financial Crisis
Clinton, Kevin - 2009
We derive forecast confidence bands using a Global Projection Model covering the United States, the euro area, and … affects the United States. To calculate confidence intervals that respect the zero interest rate floor, we employ Latin … hypercube sampling. Derived confidence bands suggest non-negligible risks that U.S. interest rates might stay near zero for an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402370
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Trust As a Means of Improving Corporate Governance and Efficiency
Chami, Ralph - 2002
Agency problems within the firm are a significant hindrance to efficiency. We propose trust between coworkers as a superior alternative to the standard tools used to mitigate agency problems: increased monitoring and incentive-based pay. We show how trust induces employees to work harder,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399593
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Adjustment Uncertainty, Confidence, and Growth : Latin America After the Debt Crisis
International Monetary Fund - 1989
The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014395953