Inflation dynamics, as well as its interaction with unemployment, have been puzzling since the Global Financial Crisis … forecast scenarios. We show that financial and external variables have the highest forecasting power for inflation and …

This paper examines some of the factors that have been influential in keeping inflation low in the United States during … role of labor costs and import prices in determining price inflation …

This paper simulates out-of-sample inflation forecasting for Germany, the UK, and the US. In contrast to other studies … that Phillips curves based on ex post output gaps generally improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts compared to an AR(1 …) forecast but that real-time output gaps often do not help forecasting inflation. This raises the question how operationally …

Low rates of inflation have been recorded in recent years, despite a decline in the unemployment rate. This phenomenon … explain the recent behavior of inflation. A leading explanation for recent inflation performance appears to be favorable price …

This paper examines the recent behavior of core inflation in the United States. We specify a simple Phillips curve … based on the assumptions that inflation expectations are fully anchored at the Federal Reserve’s target, and that labor …-market slack is captured by the level of shortterm unemployment. This equation explains inflation behavior since 2000, including …

that this may have contributed to more elastic aggregate supply in recent years, which is consistent with lower inflation …

-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than anticipated, suggesting a … breakdown of the relation between inflation and activity. To examine the first, we look at 122 recessions over the past 50 years … unemployment on inflation, for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s, but has remained roughly stable since …

Despite closing output gaps and tightening labor markets, inflation has remained low in the euro area. Based on an … augmented Phillips Curve framework, we find that this phenomenon-sometimes attributed to low global inflation-has been primarily … caused by a remarkable persistence of inflation, keeping it low despite the reduction in slack. This feature is shown to be …